Monthly Archives: February 2010

15 posts

Linked-In Q&A: ARIMA Simplified

Again, I find myself drawn-in to a Linked-In question that forces me to clearly articulate my understanding: Question: Could some one explain the ARIMA forecasting model in a simplified manner? My Answer: An autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models are best understood in the context of Box–Jenkins methodology, who’s steps are as follows: Model identification and model selection. Parameter estimation. Model checking. Box–Jenkins methodology applies autoregressive moving average (ARMA) or ARIMA models to find the best fit of a time series to past values of a time series, in order to make forecasts and understand the underlying process/es. Briefly put, […]

Bookmarks for February 1st through February 2nd

These are my links for February 1st through February 2nd: Simulation-Based Definitions of Emergence – One approach to characterizing the elusive notion of emergence is to define that a property is emergent if and only if its presence can be derived but only by simulation. In this paper I investigate the pros and cons of this approach, focusing in particular on whether an appropriately distinct boundary can be drawn between simulation-based and non-simulation-based methods. I also examine the implications of this definition for the epistemological role of emergent properties in prediction and in explanation. The Sphere of Deviance | […]

Bookmarks for January 28th through February 1st

These are my links for January 28th through February 1st: Keeping computers from ending science’s reproducibility – In recent years, scientists may have inadvertently given up on a key component of the scientific method: reproducibility. That’s an argument that’s being advanced by a number of people who have been tracking our increasing reliance on computational methods in all areas of science. An apparently simple computerized analysis may now involve a complex pipeline of software tools; reproducing it will require version control for both software and data, along with careful documentation of the precise parameters used at every step. Some researchers […]