These are my links for March 14th through March 15th: Google Refine – a power tool for working with messy data (formerly Freebase Gridworks) Interpreting Prediction Market Prices as Probabilities – While most empirical analysis of prediction markets treats prices of binaryoptions as predictions of the probability of future events, it has recently been argued thatthere is little existing theory supporting this practice. We provide relevant analyticfoundations, describing sufficient conditions under which prediction markets pricescorrespond with mean beliefs. Beyond these specific sufficient conditions, we show thatfor a broader class of models prediction market prices are usually close to the meanbeliefs […]
Daily Archives: March 15, 2011
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